Peak Oil, an issue that Neo Cons and Michael Moore can agree on...
Peak Oil is the nasty surprise on the other side of the oil production curve. The chances of anyone instituting any sort of large scale alternative energy production scheme in time to compensate are pretty slim. Lets learn about peak oil:
"The situation is so dire that George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." In an August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:
"It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater than anyone could ever imagine."
When asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:
"I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."
It's not just Simmons sounding the alarm. According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham:
"America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."
The statements of Vice President Dick Cheney have been equally alarming. In late 1999, Cheney stated:
“By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”
Cheney ended on a disturbing note, “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”
This is equivalent to six times the amount of oil produced per day by Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer.
A report commissioned by Cheney and released in 2001 was no less rosy:
“The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.”
It's not just members of the Bush Administration who are extraordinarily concerned about Peak Oil. Avowed leftist and democratic demigod Michael Moore believes it to be a life and death issue for most of the industrialized world's population. In his most recent book, Dude, Where's My Country?, Moore dedicates an entire chapter, "Oils Well That Ends Well" to the wholesale and unprecedented suffering the industrialized world will soon endure if people don't wake up to the reality of Peak Oil.
On a similar note, former UK environmental minister Michael Meacher stated, in a recent issue of Financial Times, “It's hard to envisage the effects of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society. The implications are mind-blowing.”
Anytime three members of the Bush Administration are in complete agreement with Michael Moore and a high ranking environmentalist, it's safe to say the sh_t has hit the fan."
from: www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Int...html
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And here's an article from BBC this week that I think really underscores the relevance of learning about peak oil.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3707079.stm
Oil supply 'cannot match demand'
Producers insist they are struggling to keep the market calm
The perception that oil supply cannot keep up with demand has fuelled another jump in prices around the world.
London Brent crude rose another 59 cents a barrel to $37.95, while US crude futures hit $40.92, close to their all-time high of $41.15.
The trigger was oil cartel Opec, whose president effectively admitted being powerless to cool the market.
A White House spokesman said the Bush Administration was urging oil producers not to act in ways harmful to the US.
Opec cartel president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said member states were already being allowed to produce well over their quotas, but oil prices have not steadied.
In fact, major oil producing countries are adding an extra 2 million barrels per day - 2.5% of worldwide demand - without having an effect on prices.
Kuwait steps in
Kuwait's energy minister came to the rescue by promising the Gulf state would pump extra oil.
Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed said Kuwait would produce up to 2.4 million barrels a day, breaching its Opec quota by 600,000 barrels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that Opec members were not pumping their full quotas. It identified 2.5 million barrels a day of spare capacity among 10 Opec nations; roughly half of it is in Saudi Arabia.
The current strength in oil prices, which have risen by one-quarter this year alone, is partly to do with old-fashioned supply and demand.
Buyers and sellers
There are supply concerns in the Middle East, where political instability is seen as a threat to oil output.
And markets such as the US, the world's biggest oil importer, are proving far more thirsty than analysts predicted, especially as the peak summer driving season gets into gear.
Latest oil price data
The latest weekly figures show US petrol stocks fell by at least 1.5 million barrels in the last seven days, the American Petroleum Institute said. The figures will add to pressure for prices to rise.
White House spokesman Scott McCellan said the US president "remains concerned" about rising petrol prices and that the US has been lobbying oil producers "not to act in a way that would harm our economy".
The IEA has raised its forecast for 2004 global oil demand growth to 1.95 million barrels per day, despite generally slow growth in developed economies.
Crucially, say analysts, the traditionally close relationship between demand and supply has partially broken down: for technical reasons, a number of the world's biggest producers, particularly outside Opec, have been unable to increase output significantly, leading to higher prices.
Technical hitch
There are other, more subtle factors at play.
The current surge is not just to do with consumption
Nowhere near all of the apparently increased demand is connected with increased consumption.
Instead, it seems that major buyers - especially governments - are stocking up on oil, possibly to guard against any disruptions to supply.
The US strategic petroleum reserve has been a particularly active buyer, and governments such as China and India have followed suit.
At the same time, traders in the futures and options markets have anticipated a tighter market by bidding up forward prices.
Analysts are now divided between those who believe prices will rise as summer continues, and those who say there is no fundamental justification for prices to remain high for long.
------------------------------------------------------
So what do you cats think? Should we all start welding assault weapons to construction equipment?
Peak Oil is the nasty surprise on the other side of the oil production curve. The chances of anyone instituting any sort of large scale alternative energy production scheme in time to compensate are pretty slim. Lets learn about peak oil:
"The situation is so dire that George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." In an August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:
"It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater than anyone could ever imagine."
When asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:
"I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."
It's not just Simmons sounding the alarm. According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham:
"America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."
The statements of Vice President Dick Cheney have been equally alarming. In late 1999, Cheney stated:
“By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”
Cheney ended on a disturbing note, “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”
This is equivalent to six times the amount of oil produced per day by Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer.
A report commissioned by Cheney and released in 2001 was no less rosy:
“The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.”
It's not just members of the Bush Administration who are extraordinarily concerned about Peak Oil. Avowed leftist and democratic demigod Michael Moore believes it to be a life and death issue for most of the industrialized world's population. In his most recent book, Dude, Where's My Country?, Moore dedicates an entire chapter, "Oils Well That Ends Well" to the wholesale and unprecedented suffering the industrialized world will soon endure if people don't wake up to the reality of Peak Oil.
On a similar note, former UK environmental minister Michael Meacher stated, in a recent issue of Financial Times, “It's hard to envisage the effects of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society. The implications are mind-blowing.”
Anytime three members of the Bush Administration are in complete agreement with Michael Moore and a high ranking environmentalist, it's safe to say the sh_t has hit the fan."
from: www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Int...html
-----------------------------------
And here's an article from BBC this week that I think really underscores the relevance of learning about peak oil.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3707079.stm
Oil supply 'cannot match demand'
Producers insist they are struggling to keep the market calm
The perception that oil supply cannot keep up with demand has fuelled another jump in prices around the world.
London Brent crude rose another 59 cents a barrel to $37.95, while US crude futures hit $40.92, close to their all-time high of $41.15.
The trigger was oil cartel Opec, whose president effectively admitted being powerless to cool the market.
A White House spokesman said the Bush Administration was urging oil producers not to act in ways harmful to the US.
Opec cartel president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said member states were already being allowed to produce well over their quotas, but oil prices have not steadied.
In fact, major oil producing countries are adding an extra 2 million barrels per day - 2.5% of worldwide demand - without having an effect on prices.
Kuwait steps in
Kuwait's energy minister came to the rescue by promising the Gulf state would pump extra oil.
Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed said Kuwait would produce up to 2.4 million barrels a day, breaching its Opec quota by 600,000 barrels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that Opec members were not pumping their full quotas. It identified 2.5 million barrels a day of spare capacity among 10 Opec nations; roughly half of it is in Saudi Arabia.
The current strength in oil prices, which have risen by one-quarter this year alone, is partly to do with old-fashioned supply and demand.
Buyers and sellers
There are supply concerns in the Middle East, where political instability is seen as a threat to oil output.
And markets such as the US, the world's biggest oil importer, are proving far more thirsty than analysts predicted, especially as the peak summer driving season gets into gear.
Latest oil price data
The latest weekly figures show US petrol stocks fell by at least 1.5 million barrels in the last seven days, the American Petroleum Institute said. The figures will add to pressure for prices to rise.
White House spokesman Scott McCellan said the US president "remains concerned" about rising petrol prices and that the US has been lobbying oil producers "not to act in a way that would harm our economy".
The IEA has raised its forecast for 2004 global oil demand growth to 1.95 million barrels per day, despite generally slow growth in developed economies.
Crucially, say analysts, the traditionally close relationship between demand and supply has partially broken down: for technical reasons, a number of the world's biggest producers, particularly outside Opec, have been unable to increase output significantly, leading to higher prices.
Technical hitch
There are other, more subtle factors at play.
The current surge is not just to do with consumption
Nowhere near all of the apparently increased demand is connected with increased consumption.
Instead, it seems that major buyers - especially governments - are stocking up on oil, possibly to guard against any disruptions to supply.
The US strategic petroleum reserve has been a particularly active buyer, and governments such as China and India have followed suit.
At the same time, traders in the futures and options markets have anticipated a tighter market by bidding up forward prices.
Analysts are now divided between those who believe prices will rise as summer continues, and those who say there is no fundamental justification for prices to remain high for long.
------------------------------------------------------
So what do you cats think? Should we all start welding assault weapons to construction equipment?
posted by:
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Canada
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Re: Peak Oil, an issue that Neo Cons and Michael Moore can agree on...
Fri, May 14, 2004 - 12:15 AMYeah, we're fooked, time for a new empire to rise!
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Re: Peak Oil, an issue that Neo Cons and Michael Moore can agree on...
Fri, May 14, 2004 - 3:12 AMFine with me...
The days of obesity for Americans... well, looks like dieting will be a non-issue.
Complaints about non-organic farming? Well most commercial fertilizers are petroleum based, looks like agricultural techniques might change if natural sources of fertilizer becomes cheaper.
We have disposible plastic packaging for everything... that won't be cheap anymore. Will be more like the great grandparent's day when people will have to go shopping probably with their own re-usable containers which may be filled with foodstuffs coming from more general "bins". Just like was done on the ol' "General Store" in "little house on the prairie"
Should mean smaller landfills, less trash in General.
I of course feel sorry for anyone that has to wash re-usable diapers, being that disposable ones will probably rise in price being mostly made from petrochemical ingredients.
I work for a construction company. For the last half a decade we have been working on projects for "Park and Ride" bus terminals, new train stations, a monorail extention, and some new trolley stations. It's a predominantly urban suburb where I live not far from NYC, even on the bay where I live ferries can take commuters to Manhattan and back... all fairly new.
The reason for this wasn't because of oil, but because the population here has become so dense the roads can't handle anymore traffic. So we started building alternate transportation infrastructures and the process is still ongoing. It is possible for people here to get around without a car already, but inconvenient, it could become more convenient. Still, I think we are much more ready for it than most outlying suburbs.
My guess is that outer suburbs not connected by trains and trolleys or transportation hubs will die. For those who wanted to buy a big home with modest means in Upstate New York or Pennsylvania, a home they could never afford a closer commute to the city... their homes will become worthless. However the value of homes in places closer to the city will probably rise.
I can see a major rush of people trying to move into cities... probably a lot of urban renewal in some places and outright shameless gentrification in others. It should prove to be a boon for cities and immediate suburbs. I can almost imagine the kind of growth around NYC in my area, where huge parts of NJ and Long Island with train service will probably grow and build up to the point to where they are indistinguishable from Queens, Brooklyn, or the Bronx. Those immediate suburbs becoming cities.
For instance, towns here have been fighting for the right to "re-develop" using eminent domain to force property owners of substandard housing to move, they may then give the property over to a developer who'll demolish two or three single family homes in a row... then build four story townhouses that could fit three families per lot. As I said this process is already going on, but in a fuel crisis the process should quicken in any town offering mass transit.
So, for cities at least... I don't see "road Warrior" rather I see a return to the late 1800's-1940's era of industrial urban living.
The story may be sadder for those living away from cities, particularly around "edge cities". Or in cities without trains, trolleys, subways, etc (I can only shudder at what will happen in Los Angeles given their bussing system, I mean it's a city structured around motorists). Those who live in distant suburbs to be close to a company that relocated away from major cities will depend completely on the rise and fall of that company. Their property will be worthless if the company pulls out or goes bankrupt. It will probably leave some "ghost towns" in America similar to the abandoned mining towns of the Ol' west.
Perhaps the land might be cheap enough literally that it could be "redeveloped" as farms, since many farms in western and southern NJ (far from the city) were bulldozed to make condos and suburbs. They may one day be in turn bulldozed and returned into farms again, since cities in a fuel crisis may demand sources of food closer to the city to reduce transportation costs.
What it will mean probably is a lot of people will have work, particularly in construction of infrastructures.
If I had the money to invest, I'd get whatever multi family units I could find in any town with a train... rental income is bound to go up as people clamor to cities only after the fuel prices rise to an unbearable level.
Eventually the dust will settle, America will adapt but look really different. Gone will be the sprawl of suburbs beyond a certain point around extremely dense cities with probably a hopping night-life. Small towns may still exist for farmers and such, can't say they'll miss the huge groups of yuppies that moved in on them in decades past and moved back to the cities again.
It should pretty much end life for the minivan dorkwad or sport utility driving morons, people with small efficient cars will have more freedom to use the roads than they will.
Rail yards for freight should probably come into more use, since it might be cheaper to use rails rather than trucks. Heck, we might see a re-emergence of Coal burning technologies in a new generation of trains. That would take things full circle.
Fact is, life will be bearable. It was once before, at least here. Before GM bought up the trolley systems here and ran them deliberately into bankruptcy to force people to buy cars there was a trolley system that literally shaddowed our commuter train system and interconnected towns to train stations very efficiently and cheaply. It can happen again, it will take time. They now call these systems "Light rails" and have built the first new one in a long time in Jersey city... as I said I got to work on the contruction of some of this- www.nycsubway.org/perl/show
All in all, I really think that just as a Junkie is better off without their addiction to heroin, albeit after a very uncomfortable withdrawl, the United States will probably be better after a painful withdrawl from oil. -
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Re: Peak Oil, an issue that Neo Cons and Michael Moore can agree on...
Fri, May 14, 2004 - 12:59 PMnice post!~
cheers.
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public denial...
Tue, March 1, 2005 - 11:49 AMWow... Shmedrick, you really have your head up your ass!
You have no fcucking idea of how bad things are. What a dreamy, full of bullshit, perspective you have on the coming years. Maybe you should look at dieoff.com some good info there. I went to a conference with some local greats, pertaining to the coming oil colapse. Really ripped the veil from my eyes. Yep, undenialbly the shit is hitting the fan, but the majaority are not willing to look at it. Life will just keep going on in a rational and complacent way for all middle-class turds. "Perhaps we will have to buy a subsidized Prius with our government tax cuts."
The conferance illuminated Canada's "Plan Vert", more bullshit global denial of actual events.
Its like a man diagnosed with grossly metastasized cancer, saying "well, I guess I will cut back on a few cigarettes then".
I guess I'll go live my dying then. Big load of self-realization coming my way before the end...!
L -
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Re: public denial...
Sun, September 4, 2005 - 7:38 PMRead a book called The Ecology of Commerce & watch dvd called The Corporation. There's a lady with a mustache on the dvd & she almost looks like a man. She definitely has some itty-bitty bitch titts though. lol OH MY GOD!!! I was trying to be serious then ruined it by making fun of someone that can't help they are androgenous and but ugly. : ( I'm such an asshole! Sorry guys. lol She was fun to laugh at though even though she seems kinda smart. I just can't help but imagine what it must be like to have sex with her though. I do that ALOT. Just look at people and wonder what it would be like. Hmm.... You either go to a happy place or gross yourself out. Either way you just have to take everything as a learning experience and if it doesnt kill you it can only make you stronger. Like OMG!!! I'm SUCH a philosophist!
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